Prevalence-Induced Concept Change: Understanding Our Misjudgment of Progress

Why do some problems seem impervious to solutions? Are they genuinely unsolvable, or do they simply exceed our current comprehension? Is it a lack of resources—human, material, or otherwise? Or is the issue not with our problem-solving ability at all but with our failure to recognize progress when it happens?

Lately, I’ve been struck by a disconnect. The conversations around me are saturated with pessimism—friends and acquaintances lamenting the decline of civilization, the worsening state of the world, the impending doom lurking behind every headline. And yet, when I look around, I see undeniable signs of progress. Space exploration is experiencing a renaissance, artificial intelligence is revolutionizing industries, and medical advancements are pushing the boundaries of longevity and health. My observations contradict the prevailing narrative, and I find myself wondering: Why is there such a gap between what people say and what I see?

I acknowledge that my perspective is influenced by my own circumstances—call it luck, blessings, or privilege. But that alone doesn’t explain the chasm between the doom-laden discourse and the tangible progress unfolding before us.

To make sense of this, I turned to psychology. What I found was an insidious cognitive phenomenon that helps explain why we often fail to see improvement—even when it’s happening before our eyes.

The Hidden Bias That Warps Our Judgment

In 2018, psychologist Daniel Gilbert and his team introduced the concept of prevalence-induced concept change. Their research revealed a fascinating insight: as the prevalence of a problem decreases, we unconsciously redefine it, expanding its scope. In other words, as progress is made, we shift the goalposts—often without realizing it.

Gilbert summarized the phenomenon succinctly:

“When problems become rare, we count more things as problems. Our studies suggest that when the world gets better, we become harsher critics of it, and this can cause us to mistakenly conclude that it hasn’t gotten better at all. Progress, it seems, tends to mask itself.”

This cognitive bias operates like a mirage. As we solve problems, we instinctively recalibrate our standards, redefining lesser issues as if they were as severe as the original ones. This explains why societies can make tremendous progress yet remain perpetually dissatisfied.

The implications are vast. Gilbert’s team demonstrated this effect through simple experiments. In one, participants were asked to identify whether dots on a screen were blue or not. As the number of blue dots decreased, participants started classifying previously purple dots as blue—unknowingly shifting their definition.

This explains more than just visual perception; it reveals a fundamental quirk of human judgment. We adjust our standards based on shifting conditions, often in ways that obscure real progress.

Why We Struggle to See Progress

We like to think of our brains as rational processors of information, accurately interpreting the world around us. But the truth is more complicated. Our perceptions are shaped not just by raw data but by the narratives we absorb, the expectations we set, and the biases we unknowingly carry.

This is a two-way street—our thoughts shape our perceptions, and our perceptions shape our reality. If we are constantly bombarded with pessimistic news, social media outrage, and narratives of decline, it alters the lens through which we see the world. Even if objective progress is happening, our subconscious mind adjusts to maintain a sense of crisis.

This is why even those with similar backgrounds can hold wildly opposing worldviews. Someone deeply invested in a particular cause, for example, may not pivot to a new mission once their primary battle is won. Instead, they may unconsciously redefine the issue, ensuring that their fight remains ongoing. They start counting purple dots as blue ones.

Gilbert recognized this tendency in broader social debates:

“Reducing the prevalence of discrimination, for example, may simply cause us to start calling more behaviors discriminatory. Some will see this as an overreach; others as increased sensitivity. The phenomenon itself, however, is neutral—it’s just how human cognition works.”

The Consequences: Policy, Resources, and Misaligned Priorities

This tendency doesn’t just distort personal perspectives—it has profound implications for policymaking and resource allocation.

In materials science, the term “creep” describes the gradual deformation of a solid under sustained pressure. In the military, we spoke of “mission creep”—the slow expansion of objectives beyond their original scope, often leading to inefficiency and unintended consequences. In project management, “scope creep” describes a similar problem—projects that spiral out of control due to expanding expectations.

Prevalence-induced concept change leads to a similar phenomenon in public policy: problem creep. When policymakers unconsciously expand the definition of a social issue, they risk misallocating resources. Efforts and funding may be directed toward combating problems that, in their original form, have largely been mitigated—while more pressing emerging challenges are overlooked.

This isn’t to say that vigilance is unwarranted. Some shifts in societal standards are necessary and beneficial. But without awareness of this bias, we risk chasing ghosts while ignoring real dangers.

Maybe I’m Not Crazy

Understanding prevalence-induced concept change has led me to an unexpected realization: maybe I’m not out of touch for seeing progress. Maybe the world isn’t as hopeless as the prevailing pessimism suggests. Perhaps many of the crises that consume society’s attention are improving—just not as quickly as our expectations evolve.

The irony of progress is that it often hides itself. The more we solve, the more we find to solve. But if we’re not careful, we risk convincing ourselves that progress is an illusion.

Of course, simply recognizing this bias doesn’t make us immune to it. Even when Gilbert’s study participants were warned about the effect—and financially incentivized to resist it—they still fell into the same trap. That suggests a deeply ingrained psychological tendency, one not easily overcome.

But awareness is a start. If we acknowledge that our perceptions are malleable, shaped by the information we consume and the standards we set, we can resist the worst effects of this bias. We can strive for a more balanced view—one that celebrates human achievement without complacency.

Let’s take a moment to recognize just how far we’ve come. We have eradicated diseases, expanded human lifespans, and built technologies that were once the realm of science fiction. We continue to push the frontiers of knowledge.

Progress is real. And it’s time we give it its due.