Illusions of Grandeur
By most accounts, the Cold War ended in 1989 or 1991, but it’s often felt like it was just paused while Russia regrouped after the collapse of the USSR.
In 1999 Putin was confirmed as Prime Minister after Yeltsin chose him as a successor, accelerating the inevitable clash between Russia and the west. Of course, Russia has never returned to the prominence of the USSR, despite Putin’s deepest desires. Since his swift rise to power, Putin has regularly flexed his muscle, testing the international community’s appetite for war — but his latest invasion of Ukraine is a sequel to the Cold War that will likely end in his demise.
My heart aches for the innocent people involved — those lives that will be lost and families displaced due to a tyrant’s illusions of grandeur, hubris, and greed.
When Putin became Prime Minister, he was largely unknown. His approval rating was in the low single digits because most Russians had no clue who he was. That quickly changed. He was confirmed in August, and just a few weeks later, the infamous apartment bombings began, and houses in Moscow, Volgodonsk, and Buynaksk were blown up, killing more than 300 people. Putin blamed Chechen terrorists for these suspiciously timed attacks and invaded the separatist region.
After “avenging” the attackers, Putin was no longer unknown. When his power wanes and public support weakens, he revisits the playbook with which he’s had success. Putin has generated imperial gains on at least four occasions — Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, and now in Ukraine. However, no one likes to watch re-runs on repeat, so Putin’s militarism has diminishing returns. Thus, he needs larger and larger campaigns (and victories) to restore public support and keep his grip on power.
It’s impossible to get inside Putin’s head, but I imagine his eyes lit up when he watched the Taliban stroll through Afghanistan, freely taking region after region with almost no resistance. I have to think he also believes that the pandemic and decades of conflict in the middle east have exhausted the global population, leaving a little political will or motivation to get involved in another Russian power play.
It’s early days in Putin’s latest invasion, and separating reality from fiction in times of chaos is impossible, but I felt compelled to document my initial reactions.
This time, it appears Putin made some major miscalculations.
Putin underestimated the will and determination of the Ukrainian people. Their stiff resistance has slowed the progress of the Russian military and further emboldened Ukrainians to resist the invaders.
He underestimated the strength and loyalty of a non-puppet leader in Zelensky. In Afghanistan, The media showed afghan leaders fleeing the country with bags full of cash. That’s not the case in Ukraine. Leaders have primarily remained in Kyiv, and other population centers prepared to fight and die for their country. This courage has inspired Ukrainians and the world.
Putin overestimated the motivation and will of his countrymen and troops. I believe most of the Russian military postured with the expectation of no actual conflict. They likely thought they’d surround Ukraine and quickly control the government without real fighting. This fantasy is only that. Instead, Russian soldiers face the real threat of death or capture, which requires motivation to persist. There have been numerous reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight. It doesn’t appear much better for Putin among the civilian population — Russians continue protesting despite the possibility of arrest.
Putin is implementing Cold War leadership in the age of instant information. Controlling information is harder today than ever, and despite reports of attempts to control social media in Russia, the digital age presents more problems than Putin expected. Russians and the world are watching this conflict unfold in a way that hasn’t happened before — and Russia is losing the information war in these earliest days. Further, the open-source intelligence community supports traditional services by vetting satellite imagery and providing geolocation services. And recently, the hacker group Anonymous has taken aim at the Russian government — this isn’t the 1980s.
Again, it’s only several days in what could become a drawn-out conflict, and things can change quickly. The worst is likely to come. But if Putin’s strategy and execution are as poor as they look initially, this conflict could be his last.
How does this end?
I suspect we’re witnessing the beginning of the end of Putin’s regime and possibly his life. Russian oligarchs are losing billions by the day. They have no problem supporting Putin, provided he advances their wealth and influence. Make no mistake; when they lose confidence in his ability to protect and grow their wealth, they’ll replace him.
The ruble recently hit all-time lows against the dollar, and the Russian stock market is crashing, already registering its 5th worst decline. Worldwide sanctions are growing, and it’s looking likely that world powers will exclude Russia from the SWIFT payment system. If this occurs, the likelihood of a run on Russian banks (when banks can’t send or receive funds from other banks, solvency issues are likely) dramatically increases.
The invasion appears to be off schedule, and Putin has several choices, none of which look very attractive. He can double down — committing more troops and causing more death and destruction, which will trigger further action from the international community.
Or, he can try to find a way out of this war. Looking weak has not been his forte, and a soft-landing seems unlikely at this point, so I doubt this option is chosen. But doubling down comes with immense risks. His cronies care most about money and power, and further escalation puts both of those at risk. Russia is being expelled from the international community and will be left a pariah on the world stage.
Ultimately, greedy oligarchs will not give up their yachts, mansions, and assets, so it might be their best move to get rid of Putin. They can conceivably save face, install a puppet administration and do the bare minimum to restore membership to the international business club, preserving what’s left of their wealth and influence.
Ironically, it may well be the cronies that’ve propped up Putin for all these years that ultimately bring him down. When you surround yourself with minions who placate you for their benefit, you’re disposable when you no longer have anything to offer.
I wish godspeed to the citizens of Ukraine as they continue to resist Putin’s assault on their sovereignty.
